22 Ocean and wave forecasting

22.1 Ocean models

Ocean models simulate the state of the ocean, which is determined by the variables described in Sect. 21.1, analogous to atmospheric models, which simulate the state of the atmosphere. Compared to the atmosphere, ocean modeling has three major differences:

22.1.1 Prognostic variables

The prognostic variables of ocean models are essentially those described in Sect. 21.1, albeit with a few peculiarities. The following is a list of prognostic variables in typical use; other variables may of course be employed instead, as long as those listed in Sect. 21.1 can be derived from them:

All other thermodynamic quantities can be derived from the potential temperature, the density, and the salinity.

22.1.2 Vertical coordinates

Due to the challenge described in the previous section, the vertical coordinate plays a particularly important role in ocean modeling. In general, a vertical coordinate $\kappa$ is a bijective mapping

\[ \begin{align} z = z\left(\kappa\right). \end{align} \]

22.1.2.1 z-coordinates

With z-coordinates (also called geopotential coordinates), the coordinate surfaces are exactly horizontal. The main advantage is the absence of metric terms in horizontal derivatives. At the coasts, the coordinate surfaces intersect the ocean floor, so that the number of layers depends on the horizontal coordinates. Owing to the surface displacement $\eta$, the thickness of the first layer is moreover time dependent. The bathymetry is thereby represented in a step-like fashion.

22.1.2.2 $\sigma_z$-coordinates

With $\sigma_z$-coordinates, the layers are fitted to the bathymetry so that they do not intersect the ocean floor. In shallow waters the layers thereby become very thin, and on slopes the coordinate surfaces run very steeply. The mathematical formulation is analogous to the terrain-following coordinates in the atmosphere described in Sect. 12.3.

22.1.2.3 $\rho$-coordinates

Within the deeper ocean, the motions proceed predominantly along isopycnals. Aligning the coordinate surfaces with these is numerically advantageous, since vertical motions then almost vanish. This is, however, only possible if the ocean is stably stratified (otherwise the potential density within a water column cannot be mapped uniquely onto the geometric height), which is not the case everywhere, which is why these coordinates are not globally applicable. This is analogous to the isentropic coordinates in the atmosphere considered in Sect. 12.2.

22.1.2.4 $z^\star$-coordinates

$z^\star$-coordinates („z-star coordinates“) are a generalization of z-coordinates that resolves the problem that the thickness of the topmost layer depends on the surface displacement. The transformation to geometric coordinates reads

\[ \begin{align} z = \eta + z^\star\frac{\eta + H}{H}. \end{align} \]

The coordinate surfaces are therefore no longer exactly horizontal, but they still intersect the ocean floor.

22.1.2.5 Hybrid coordinates

All of the vertical coordinates listed so far have substantial advantages and disadvantages. Hybrid coordinates are an attempt to combine the advantages of the various coordinates with one another. Within the upper few tens of meters, the so-called thermocline, the ocean is well mixed and weakly stratified. Here, z- or $z^\star$-coordinates are appropriate. Further down, the ocean is dominated by quasi-geostrophic motions along the isopycnals (surfaces of equal potential density). In coastal regions, by contrast, terrain-following coordinates are appropriate in order to be able to represent the bathymetry. Hybrid coordinates are accordingly a mixture of $\rho-$, $\sigma_z-$, and $z^\star-$coordinates. They give the ocean model HyCOM (Hybrid Coordinate Ocean Model) its name.

22.2 Sea state forecast

22.2.1 Prognostic variables

Sea state is another word for water surface waves. The prognostic variable considered here is the displacement of the water surface

\[ \begin{align} h = h\left(x, y, t\right) \end{align} \]

from the mean position of the water surface.$h$ cannot simply be defined as a deviation from the geoid, since the dynamic topography would still be superimposed on it. This does not contribute to the displacement associated with the waves. The averaging interval must therefore be chosen accordingly. In many situations, $h$ is not a function of the horizontal coordinates, for example in surf or in a rough sea, because in such cases the position of the water surface is no longer uniquely defined. Such effects are accounted for later in the form of energy-dissipating source terms.

One could now use the shallow-water equations derived in Sect. 13.8.1 as a set of prognostic equations, possibly supplemented by some semi-empirical additional terms. However, this has several disadvantages:

Therefore, water surface waves are usually described by means of a radiative transfer equation (RTE). The prognostic variable is then the spectral radiance

\[ \begin{align} N = N\left(\mathbf{k},\mathbf{r},t\right) \end{align} \]

Here $\mathbf{r}$ is a two-dimensional position vector and $\mathbf{k}$ is a two-dimensional wave vector. Usually, $\mathbf{k}$ is given not in Cartesian coordinates but in polar coordinates $\left(k,\theta\right)$. As the dispersion relation $\omega = \omega\left(k, \theta\right)$, one uses that of water surface waves

\[ \begin{align} \omega^2 &= gk\tanh\left(kD\right) \Rightarrow \omega = \sqrt{gk\tanh\left(kD\right)}, \end{align} \]

where $D$ is the mean water depth, i.e. the water depth without waves. From this it follows that

\[ \begin{align} c_\text{ph} &= \frac{\omega}{k} = \sqrt{\frac{g\tanh\left(kD\right)}{k}},\\ c_\text{gr} &= \frac{1}{2\omega}\frac{\partial\omega^2}{\partial k} = \frac{1}{2\omega}\left[g\tanh\left(kD\right) + \frac{gkD}{\cosh^2\left(kD\right)}\right] = \frac{g\tanh\left(kD\right)}{2\omega}\left[1 + \frac{kD}{\sinh\left(kD\right)\cosh\left(kD\right)}\right]\nonumber\\ &= \frac{c_\text{ph}}{2}\left[1 + \frac{2kD}{2\sinh\left(kD\right)\cosh\left(kD\right)}\right] = \frac{c_\text{ph}}{2}\left[1 + \frac{2kD}{\sinh\left(2kD\right)}\right]. \end{align} \]

Thus the group velocity is isotropic but not homogeneous,

\[ \begin{align} c_\text{gr} = c_\text{gr}\left(k,\mathbf{r},t\right). \end{align} \]

The spatial and temporal dependence arises through the spatial and temporal dependence of $D$.

22.2.2 Wave action equation

From this, one can derive a spectral radiative flux density

\[ \begin{align} N\left(k, \theta,\mathbf{r},t\right)\left(c_\text{gr}\left(k,\mathbf{r},t\right) + \mathbf{v}\left(\mathbf{r}, t\right)\right) \end{align} \]

where $\mathbf{v} = \mathbf{v}\left(\mathbf{r}, t\right)$ is the current velocity. The radiative transfer equation is a kind of continuity equation for $N$, which is conceptually related to the conservation of energy:

\[ \begin{align} \frac{\partial N\left(k, \theta\right)}{\partial t} + \nabla\cdot\left(N\left(k, \theta\right)c_\text{gr}\left(k\right)\right) &= S_\text{nl}\left(k, \theta\right) + S_\text{ws}\left(k, \theta\right) + S_\text{wc}\left(k, \theta\right)\nonumber\\ & + S_\text{diss}\left(k, \theta\right) + S_\text{bd}\left(k, \theta\right)\tag{22.10}\label{eq:rte_water_surface} \end{align} \]

The spatial and temporal dependence is no longer written explicitly here. In addition, five source terms have been included:

Depending on the particular situation, further source terms can be included. Eq. (22.10) is also called the wave action equation.

The total energy of the wave spectrum $E$ at a given location and time is the integral over the entire spectrum:

\[ \begin{align} E = \int_0^{2\pi}\int_0^\infty N\left(k,\theta\right)dkd\theta.\tag{22.11}\label{eq:wave_spectrum_total_energy} \end{align} \]

The energy-weighted spectral mean of a quantity $\psi$ is therefore given by

\[ \begin{align} \newoverline{\psi} \coloneqq \frac{1}{E}\int_0^{2\pi}\int_0^\infty\psi\left(k,\theta\right)N\left(k,\theta\right)dkd\theta.\tag{22.12}\label{eq:wave_spectral_average} \end{align} \]

22.2.3 Diagnostic variables

22.2.3.1 Significant wave height

The significant wave height is a kind of representative wave height for which

\[ \begin{align} H_s = 4\sqrt{E}. \end{align} \]

22.2.3.2 Mean wave direction

The mean wave direction $\theta_m$ is calculated from Eq. (22.12) as

\[ \begin{align} \theta_m = \arctan2\left(b,a\right) \end{align} \]

with

\[ \begin{align} a &\coloneqq \frac{1}{E}\int_0^{2\pi}\int_0^\infty\cos\left(\theta\right)N\left(k,\theta\right)dkd\theta,\nonumber\\ b &\coloneqq \frac{1}{E}\int_0^{2\pi}\int_0^\infty\sin\left(\theta\right)N\left(k,\theta\right)dkd\theta. \end{align} \]

22.2.3.3 Mean wavelength

For the mean wavelength $L_m$, one has

\[ \begin{align} L_m = \newoverline{\left(\frac{2\pi}{k}\right)} = 2\pi\newoverline{k^{-1}}. \end{align} \]

22.2.3.4 Mean wave period

There are different ways of calculating the mean wave period:

\[ \begin{align} T_{m,1} &= \frac{2\pi}{\newoverline{\sigma}},\\ T_{m,2} &= \frac{2\pi}{\sqrt{\newoverline{\sigma^2}}},\\ T_{m,-1} &= \newoverline{\left(\frac{2\pi}{\sigma}\right)} = 2\pi\newoverline{\sigma^{-1}}. \end{align} \]

Here $\sigma$ is the angular frequency measured relative to the seabed.

22.2.4 Sea state forecast models

The most common sea-state forecast model is Wavewatch III. Models based on Eq. (22.10) are so-called third-generation sea-state forecast models. They solve this equation on a grid and are therefore grid-point models, even though they are sometimes referred to as spectral models because their prognostic variable has spectral meaning. They solve Eq. (22.10) by introducing, at each grid point, a spectral direction-dependent grid in $\left(k,\theta\right)$ space. In most cases, a fairly large variety of semi-empirical source terms $Q_i$ is also included.